Alabama’s got a pretty crazy QB situation this fall. They’ve got three scholarship quarterbacks, and right now, there’s a lot of talk about each of them possibly taking the starting spot. At the start of March, new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb compared freshman Keelon Russell to former Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. Then, in mid-March, On3 insider Pete Nakos reported that Austin Mack, a transfer from Washington, was turning heads and was a serious contender for the job. By April, former Alabama QB Greg McElroy said Ty Simpson was in “firm control” of the starting position.

But here’s the deal: all three of these guys have zero college starts under their belts. Even McElroy thinks Alabama’s QB situation will remain up in the air for a while. So, one of them—maybe even two—might end up transferring before 2025 is over. It’s not the end of the world, though. This is pretty common in the current college football landscape. Last year, Alabama was in a worse QB situation post-spring, and Nick Saban even had to sign a QB from the portal. Tyler Buchner didn’t work out, but if you told Alabama fans in April they’d end up with the No. 6 Heisman finisher and an SEC Championship win, they’d take it in a heartbeat.

This year, Alabama would love a repeat of Jalen Milroe’s 2023 performance. Sure, they’d like to avoid the lows of the Texas and South Florida games, but those seem far behind them after the Georgia win in the SEC Championship. The question now is which QB will take over, and if the competition shakes out in a certain way, at least one of these quarterbacks could be heading for the transfer portal soon.

If Ty Simpson is the guy

Simpson’s probably got the best shot at the starting job. If he has a breakout season, he might even declare for the NFL Draft. We’ve seen players like Mac Jones go from backup to first-round pick after a strong season. But history isn’t kind to one-year college starters, and Simpson, after losing the job to Milroe last year, hasn’t exactly seized his opportunities. Still, if Simpson has a killer season, he could leave for the draft. But if that happens, Mack would likely stay and compete in 2026, though waiting around for years as a backup doesn’t seem ideal for him.

And there’s also Russell, the highly-ranked freshman. He might get impatient if he’s not starting right away and could decide to transfer. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. Even though Russell’s a 5-star recruit, it would be a surprise to see him start as a true freshman unless there’s an injury.

If Austin Mack wins the job

Mack has experience in the offense and could be a surprise starter. But if that happens, expect a rocky fall camp. If Simpson doesn’t win the job and gets passed over by a guy like Mack, it could lead to a messy situation. And with Mack being draft-eligible after 2025, he might stick around for a while, making things even trickier for Russell. If Mack takes over as QB1, the backup situation could get really complicated, and the portal could start to look like an option for those left behind.

What if Keelon Russell takes over like Jalen Hurts did?

It’s possible, but unlikely. If Russell became the starter, both Simpson and Mack would likely hit the transfer portal after the season. It would create a nightmare for the coaches, but it could be a situation where Alabama simply takes the best QB available, even if it means some potential departures.

What’s next?

We could see some QB movement in the portal soon. Mack would be the most likely to leave if he feels like he’s fallen behind Russell. Alabama could even add another QB from the portal if they sense they’ll lose Mack. But heading into the season with just two scholarship quarterbacks? That would be a huge failure.

In the end, Simpson will likely get the majority of reps in fall camp, and it’ll come down to whether he can handle the pressure. If he struggles, that’s when we’ll see which backup has the potential to step up and take over. We’ll know soon enough how this all plays out!