By Mummy Grace 
As the 2024 NFL season heads into its final stretch, the Detroit Lions are preparing to host the Washington Commanders in a Saturday night NFC Divisional playoff matchup. Could Washington, fresh off a Wild Card victory, pull off an upset on the road against the top-seeded Lions?
The Detroit Lions’ Road to the Divisional Round
After finishing the regular season with a 15-2 record and securing the NFC North title, the Lions earned a well-deserved bye week. They’ve been resting up since Week 5, so the time off has come at a crucial point in their quest for the Super Bowl.
This weekend, they’ll face the Washington Commanders, who shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. Of the four possible opponents for the Lions in the Divisional Round, Washington is the only team they have not faced this season. With a fresh challenge ahead, Detroit will need to adjust and adapt.
The Commanders are led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, a presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year, and they will be looking to continue their upset run when they head to Detroit for the weekend matchup.
Washington Commanders: 2024 Season Overview
Record: 13-5
- Week 1: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 37-20
- Week 2: Defeated New York Giants, 21-18
- Week 3: Defeated Cincinnati Bengals, 38-33
- Week 4: Defeated Arizona Cardinals, 42-14
- Week 5: Defeated Cleveland Browns, 34-13
- Week 6: Lost to Baltimore Ravens, 30-23
- Week 7: Defeated Carolina Panthers, 40-7
- Week 8: Defeated Chicago Bears, 18-15
- Week 9: Defeated New York Giants, 27-22
- Week 10: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-27
- Week 11: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles, 26-18
- Week 12: Lost to Dallas Cowboys, 34-26
- Week 13: Defeated Tennessee Titans, 42-19
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: Defeated New Orleans Saints, 20-19
- Week 16: Defeated Philadelphia Eagles, 36-33
- Week 17: Defeated Atlanta Falcons, 30-24 (OT)
- Week 18: Defeated Dallas Cowboys, 23-19
- NFC Wild Card: Defeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-20
Key Stats:
- 5th in points scored
- 18th in points allowed
- 10th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
- 6th in offensive DVOA (9th in pass DVOA, 7th in run DVOA)
- 23rd in defensive DVOA (20th pass DVOA, 26th in run DVOA)
- 9th in special teams DVOA
For the first time since 2016, the Washington Commanders finished the regular season with a winning record. This marks a significant improvement over previous years, and their playoff berth is well-earned. In 2020, they made it to the playoffs but lost to the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. This season, however, the Commanders have turned things around and are on a roll.
The centerpiece of this season’s success has been rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was drafted second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, quickly made a name for himself with a strong start to the season, including a 4-1 stretch that quieted any doubts about his rookie status.
Despite a midseason slump in November (1-3), Washington finished strong, winning six straight games to close out the season with a 13-5 record. In the Wild Card round, Daniels led a game-winning drive to defeat the Buccaneers on the road.
Jayden Daniels: Rookie Sensation
Daniels has been the clear leader for Washington, making plays both through the air and on the ground. He threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions during the regular season, showcasing his poise and ability to lead comebacks. But his rushing ability is what makes him truly dangerous: Daniels led the Commanders in rushing with 891 yards and six touchdowns, averaging six yards per carry.
The Commanders also feature running back Brian Robinson Jr., who had a strong season with 799 yards and eight touchdowns. Robinson averaged 4.3 yards per carry and was a key piece of the offense, along with Austin Ekeler, who was signed to provide depth. Ekeler, with 367 rushing yards and 366 receiving yards, has been a valuable backup to Robinson.
Wide receiver Terry McLaurin had a career-best season, recording 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. McLaurin emerged as Daniels’ go-to target, but the passing game also benefited from the contributions of former Lion Zach Ertz, who caught 66 passes for 654 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Commanders’ Defense: Key Players and Weaknesses
Washington’s defense has been a mixed bag, but three players have stood out. Linebacker Dante Fowler had his best season since 2019, recording 10.5 sacks and a 67-yard pick-six. He, along with linebacker Frankie Luvu (8 sacks), has been a key factor in bringing pressure to opposing quarterbacks.
The secondary is led by rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil, who recorded 14 pass deflections and 2 interceptions during the regular season. His performance will be crucial in covering the Lions’ top wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has been a standout all season.
However, Washington’s run defense is a significant weakness. Ranked 26th in defensive DVOA and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5), the Commanders struggle to stop opposing ground games. This could be an area of concern against Detroit’s strong rushing attack.
Injury Report
- Key players ruled out: WR Noah Brown (IR/internal injury)
- Key players to monitor: K Austin Seibert (IR/groin), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring), DT Daron Payne (finger)
Washington’s injury report is relatively light heading into this game. The biggest concern is defensive tackle Daron Payne, who suffered a thumb injury against the Buccaneers. He played through the injury, but his ability to play at full strength could impact Washington’s defense against Detroit’s run game.
Commanders’ Strength: Quarterback Play
Jayden Daniels is the clear strength of this team. His ability to create plays with both his arm and his legs has been a game-changer for Washington. His mobility allows him to evade pressure and make plays downfield, which has made him a consistent threat. Despite taking 47 sacks this season (more than all but five quarterbacks), Daniels’ ability to create when the pocket collapses makes him dangerous.
Daniels has also shown incredible poise in clutch situations, with four game-winning drives this season, including a dramatic Hail Mary against the Bears. His confidence and leadership will be crucial as Washington looks to keep its playoff run alive.
Commanders’ Weakness: Run Defense
Washington’s biggest vulnerability remains its run defense. Ranked 26th in DVOA, the Commanders have struggled to slow down opponents on the ground. They rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in yards per carry allowed. While linebacker Bobby Wagner has played exceptionally well, Washington’s defensive line and linebackers will need to improve their run defense if they are to stand a chance against Detroit’s explosive offense.
Key Matchup: Lions Passing Offense vs. Commanders Passing Defense
While much of the focus will be on Detroit’s running game against Washington’s weak run defense, the passing game will also play a pivotal role. Washington’s passing defense, though ranked 23rd in DVOA, has been effective in limiting completions (61.9%) and passing yards per game (189.5). Cornerbacks Mike Sainristil and Marshon Lattimore will provide a tough challenge for Lions wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
If Detroit can make Washington respect the passing game, it could open up running lanes for their ground attack. But if the Commanders can jam the Lions’ receivers and disrupt timing, it could force Detroit to rely more heavily on the run game, playing right into Washington’s hands.
Prediction
While the Commanders have been playing well and have a talented rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels, the Lions’ all-around team and home-field advantage make them the favorites in this matchup. Detroit’s offense is explosive, and their defense is solid enough to contain Washington’s offensive weapons.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 31, Commanders 20