Since bursting onto the scene as a rookie, Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the NFL’s most reliable targets, racking up 340 catches over his first three seasons — second-most in the league during that span.
But after scoring just 11 touchdowns combined in his first two seasons (a modest 4.2% TD rate per target), St. Brown flipped the script with 10 touchdowns in 2023 and 12 more last year, vaulting him to the third-most receiving scores in the NFL over the past two seasons.
That explosion, however, may not last. Fantasy analyst Matt Okada of 4for4.com highlighted how St. Brown’s expected touchdowns last year were only 6.8, pointing to an unsustainable 8.5% TD rate in 2024 — far above his career average of 4.9% and the league norm for possession receivers.
Okada also noted how St. Brown’s efficiency was an outlier: his 11 yards per reception was the lowest for any receiver scoring 12+ touchdowns since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. He emphasized that while St. Brown’s route-running and hands make him a volume monster, his game doesn’t naturally lend itself to big touchdown totals year after year.
Other factors could contribute to a dip, including the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the potential emergence of Jameson Williams as a bigger threat in the Lions’ offense.
“I’d almost guarantee he drops below double-digit touchdowns in 2025,” Okada said. “That’s something to consider given his first-round fantasy draft cost. While St. Brown offers a high floor with his consistent catches, his ceiling may not match that of receivers with more big-play potential.”
Even so, St. Brown should remain a high-end fantasy WR1. Assuming his usual 110-115 catches, 7-10 touchdowns is still a reasonable projection, keeping him among the NFL’s elite receivers — even if he doesn’t repeat last year’s career-best 12 scores.
Touchdown Regression Looms for Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2025, But Fantasy Value Remains High
