By Sunday 
The “Sun God” Shines—But for How Long?
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a bright, blazing constant in the Detroit Lions offense since late in his rookie season. Whether it’s been third-and-short, red zone pressure, or simply a need for a spark, St. Brown has been Jared Goff’s go-to guy. He’s earned it, too—over the past three seasons, he’s hauled in 340 receptions, the second-most in the NFL over that span.
But while St. Brown has earned fantasy football royalty status in recent years, some analysts believe 2025 may bring a little less sparkle to his touchdown tally.
From Slow Burn to Firestorm
In his first two seasons, St. Brown’s biggest knock wasn’t receptions or yards—it was his lack of touchdowns. He posted just 11 total scores on 196 receptions, a modest 4.2% touchdown rate. That all changed in 2023 with 10 touchdowns, and 2024 only turned the heat up further—12 trips to the end zone, making him one of the most productive scorers in the league.
So what’s the problem?
Regression, Meet Reality
Fantasy analysts like Matt Okada and John Daigle are waving the red flag—not on St. Brown’s talent, but on the sustainability of his touchdown spike. Okada notes that in 2024, St. Brown hit a touchdown rate of 8.5%, well above his career average of 4.9%. He also scored on 9 of 15 red-zone targets, a whopping 60% success rate—a number that screams “outlier.”
For context: St. Brown’s 11.0 yards per reception was the lowest of any receiver who scored 12+ TDs in a season since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. In other words, he’s great at moving chains, but not built for high-end scoring year after year.
Fantasy Outlook: Still Glowing, Just Not Blazing
Even if he doesn’t hit double-digit touchdowns again, that doesn’t mean you fade St. Brown completely. He’ll still likely haul in 110–115 catches in 2025, and 7–9 touchdowns is still solid WR1 territory. The departure of OC Ben Johnson and the hype around Jameson Williams might redistribute some red zone love, but St. Brown’s role as a reliable possession receiver keeps his fantasy floor high.
The only real “fade” might be from fantasy superstardom to steady elite—not exactly a tragedy, unless you’re drafting him banking on another 12-TD season.
Bottom Line
The Sun God is still shining over Detroit—but don’t expect him to set the fantasy skies on fire like he did in 2024. Just temper expectations, lock in the receptions, and be glad you’re not stuck guessing which boom-or-bust WR to start each week.