By Mummy Grace Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
The Lions are poised to dominate offensively this week with an implied team total of 32.5 points—an extraordinary projection that is six points higher than any other team on the slate. Goff thrives in favorable game scripts, and in games where the Lions win by 10 or more points, he averages an impressive 20.2 fantasy points per game. That average would place him as the QB5 for the season. With a favorable matchup and Detroit’s offensive firepower, Goff is a must-start, especially in leagues where consistency and upside are vital.
Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, but fantasy production doesn’t always align with reputation. Mahomes has only delivered a handful of 25-point fantasy performances this season, fewer than playoff peers Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud. His league-low 6.9 aDOT and a deep throw rate of just 7.9 percent reflect a conservative offensive scheme. As 8.5-point favorites, the Chiefs are unlikely to air it out against the Texans. This conservative approach limits Mahomes’ upside, making him a sit in fantasy formats that demand high-ceiling performances.
Running Back
Start: James Cook, Bills
James Cook continues to be an underrated asset for fantasy managers. Despite being slight underdogs against Baltimore, the Bills maintain a high 45 percent run rate in one-possession games, which ranks ninth in the NFL. Buffalo’s pass rate over expected this season is a modest -2%, signaling a balanced offensive approach. The 51.5 total points in this matchup gives the Bills an implied total higher than the Eagles, even as underdogs. Cook’s efficiency and volume in close games make him a sneaky value pick with solid upside.
Start: David Montgomery, Lions
Montgomery might be the Lions’ secret weapon this week. After practicing fully and avoiding any game-day designation, Montgomery looks set to return to his goal-line role. He finished the regular season ranked fifth in carries inside the five-yard line, despite missing three games. With Detroit’s massive implied total, Montgomery is primed for scoring opportunities, offering fantasy managers touchdown-dependent upside in a high-powered offense.
Sit: Joe Mixon, Texans
Joe Mixon’s fantasy output remains tied to game scripts. While he excelled last week, thanks to a favorable matchup, the Texans’ status as 8.5-point underdogs limits his chances for another standout performance. Mixon’s splits highlight the discrepancy: he thrives in wins but struggles in losses. His reduced receiving role in negative game scripts compounds the issue, as Dare Ogunbowale takes over as the two-minute back. In a slate filled with elite RBs, Mixon lacks the ceiling to warrant prioritization.
Sit: Kyren Williams, Rams
Williams’ reliance on touchdowns for fantasy value makes him a risky option this week. His eight percent target share ranks 37th among RBs, and his .52 yards per route run is among the worst in the NFL. Against a tough Eagles defense that excels at limiting scoring opportunities, Williams’ low receiving volume and team’s low implied total make him an easy fade.
Wide Receiver
Start: Nico Collins, Texans
Nico Collins’ elite efficiency against the Chiefs’ defensive schemes makes him a standout start. Kansas City runs Quarters coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Collins leads the league with a jaw-dropping 6.2 yards per route run against Quarters. He also dominates against Cover 1, the Chiefs’ second-most common coverage, making him a matchup nightmare. Expect Collins to see heavy usage as Houston’s primary weapon in the passing game.
Start: Hollywood Brown, Chiefs
Hollywood Brown enters the postseason well-rested and ready to make an impact. Despite playing limited snaps in two regular-season games, Brown earned a 19 percent target share and 26 percent air yards share, demonstrating his ability to produce efficiently. With an anticipated increase in snap count and route volume, Brown’s speed and big-play potential make him a high-upside option in both season-long and DFS formats.
Sit: Cooper Kupp, Rams
Cooper Kupp’s recent performances suggest a decline in his role as the Rams’ top option. Over the past four games, he has earned just an 11 percent target share, compared to Puka Nacua’s dominant 40 percent. With the Eagles’ defense specializing in limiting big plays, Kupp’s intermediate and deep targets are unlikely to produce significant fantasy points. Nacua remains the preferred option in LA’s passing game.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Bills
Amari Cooper’s inconsistent role in Buffalo’s offense makes him a risky fantasy play. In the Wild Card Round, he ranked fifth among Bills receivers in route participation (41%) and saw only three targets. With the Bills spreading the ball among multiple receiving options, Cooper lacks the volume and upside needed to be a reliable fantasy starter.
Tight End
Start: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Isaiah Likely’s value hinges on Zay Flowers’ availability. If Flowers is out or limited, Likely’s role as a primary target becomes critical. He ran 73 percent of the Ravens’ routes last week and earned a team-high 21 percent target share. Given Baltimore’s lack of depth at receiver, Likely should see significant involvement, making him a strong option in both season-long and DFS formats.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Dalton Kincaid continues to underwhelm in Buffalo’s offense. He played just 66 percent of the routes in the Wild Card Round and earned a mere 12 percent target share. With no signs of increased usage, Kincaid’s floor remains low, and his ceiling is limited compared to other options like Likely.