By Sunday 
A Bold Gamble with a Steep Climb Ahead
Clay Holmes has taken a leap of faith in free agency, banking on his ability to transition from a long-time reliever to a starter. His early performance in spring training has been nothing short of impressive, but the real test lies ahead.
Through two appearances and six innings, Holmes has made Mets executive David Stearns look like a genius. The decision to convert him into a starter—seemingly out of nowhere—was a risky one. If spring training games had any bearing on the regular season, fans might already be penciling in a championship parade.
But those games don’t count. What matters is whether Holmes can sustain this success when the stakes are real.
Can Holmes Handle a Full Starter’s Workload?
The biggest hurdle for Holmes isn’t talent—it’s endurance. He has proven he can dominate through three innings, but what happens when he’s asked to go deeper into games?
Modern baseball strategy warns against letting pitchers face a lineup three times. The numbers show why: even solid starters tend to lose effectiveness as hitters adjust. So far, Holmes has barely been touched, allowing just a single hit and a walk. That’s promising—but it’s also an extremely limited sample.
The Tylor Megill Comparison
Tylor Megill serves as a cautionary tale. His first-time-through-the-order numbers are strong, with opponents batting just .244 against him. The second time around, that number creeps up slightly. But by the third time through? It jumps to a concerning .307.
Holmes, having spent years in the bullpen, has rarely had to face hitters multiple times in a game. That’s worked to his advantage. But once he starts taking the mound as a full-time starter, he won’t have that luxury.
A Promising Start, But the Real Challenge Awaits
Spring training is just the beginning. Holmes still needs to prove he can handle extended outings and navigate through a full MLB lineup multiple times. The stamina appears to be there—his ability to stay effective, however, remains a question mark.
For now, Holmes’ free-agent gamble looks like a smart bet. But the true test is coming, and it’s a steep climb to the top.