By Solomon 
Looks like Trump’s economic moves are causing some real debate. While unemployment is low at 4.1% and companies like Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor are investing, some warning signs are emerging.
The latest jobs report showed that while 151,000 jobs were added in February, there was also a spike in people stuck with part-time jobs—460,000 more last month alone. Plus, 16,000 jobs were lost in the leisure and hospitality sector, which usually benefits from consumer spending. Meanwhile, the federal government cut 10,000 jobs, which could be a bad sign for the economy.
A key indicator of economic uncertainty has jumped 41% since January, hitting levels that have previously signaled a recession. Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom thinks Trump’s unpredictability and tariff wars could push the U.S. into its first recession in five years.
Trump, however, isn’t too worried. He insists that while tariffs may cause some short-term pain, they’ll ultimately bring more factories back to the U.S. If he’s right, he’ll prove his critics wrong. But if he’s wrong, everyday Americans could feel the pain through job losses, lower wages, and rising prices.
In a Fox News interview, Trump was asked about his trade policies, but he didn’t give a clear answer. Instead, he blamed the recent 6% stock market drop on “big globalists” and hinted that tariffs might increase even further.
The White House argues that the economy is actually benefiting from Trump’s strategy, pointing to 10,000 new manufacturing jobs—almost 9,000 of which came from the auto industry. They also claim the drop in hospitality jobs was due to flu season and financial struggles left over from Biden’s presidency.
However, Wall Street isn’t convinced. Markets have taken a hit, and economists warn that tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and a weaker dollar. One expert even called it “an economic horror movie in slow motion.”
In the past week, Trump launched a trade war with Canada, Mexico, and China, only to pause some tariffs over concerns about U.S. auto jobs and Mexico’s crackdown on fentanyl smuggling. But he’s planning more tariffs on Europe starting April 2, which could spark a major economic battle. South Korea, India, and Brazil might be next on his list.
Some experts say tariffs could work if they were more targeted and based on solid research. But right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty—and that’s making investors and businesses nervous.