By Blessing 
Even if there’s a slight dip in one important stat, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still positioned to be a fantasy football star in 2025.
Since the tail end of his rookie campaign, St. Brown has quietly — and consistently — become one of the NFL’s most reliable wide receivers. In fact, over the last three seasons, only one player has recorded more catches than his 340, putting him second in the league in that span.
Early in his career, the one thing holding him back from fantasy superstardom was touchdowns. Through his first two seasons, he found the end zone just 11 times on 196 receptions — a modest 4.2% touchdown rate per target. Particularly in 2022, he seemed to be battling bad luck more than anything when it came to scoring opportunities.
Fantasy analyst John Daigle hinted at a turnaround — and he was right. In 2023, St. Brown finally saw that long-awaited boost with 10 touchdowns. He went even further last season, racking up 12. That gives him 22 receiving scores over the past two years — third-most in the NFL during that stretch.
Is a Touchdown Regression Coming in 2025?
While that scoring surge has been a major boost for his fantasy value, some experts are predicting a pullback this season. Matt Okada from 4for4.com noted that St. Brown’s expected touchdown total in 2024 was just 6.8 — much lower than the 12 he actually scored.
“Through his first three career seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown quickly established himself as one of the best possession receivers in the league,” Okada wrote. “During that time, he logged a touchdown rate of 4.9%, almost exactly the league average. Then, in 2024, he hit 8.5% in total, while scoring on nine of 15 red-zone targets (60%).”
That efficiency is hard to ignore — and hard to maintain. Okada added some key context:
“For some context on how ‘outlier-y’ his production was, St. Brown’s 11.0 yards per reception was the lowest by any player wideout to score 12+ touchdowns since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. St. Brown’s skill set is very conducive to high target totals and high reception totals, but not to high touchdown totals.”
Even his breakout year in 2023 — where he scored 10 touchdowns — required a whopping 164 targets to get there, which translated to a 6.1% touchdown rate.
With former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson now gone, questions are naturally being raised about how the Lions’ offense will function under new leadership from John Morton. The offense could look and feel different — and not necessarily in a way that boosts St. Brown’s red zone chances.
Adding to that uncertainty is the growing hype surrounding Jameson Williams. If Williams truly takes a step forward this year — even if you remain skeptical — it could mean fewer scoring opportunities for St. Brown.
Okada summed up the concern bluntly:
“I would almost guarantee he drops back below double-digit touchdowns in 2025. That does raise some concern at his first-round ADP. And while St. Brown is the safer bet with the higher floor, he has an even lower ceiling than someone like Brian Thomas Jr. does, and the missing touchdowns are a major reason why.”
There’s a good chance that 12-touchdown season in 2024 might end up being St. Brown’s career high, with the 10 from 2023 potentially standing as one of his best seasons ever. But even with that regression, he’s still in a position to deliver. Assuming his usual volume of 110–115 catches, a touchdown total in the 7–10 range seems reasonable.
Yes, the ceiling might not be quite as high this year, and the new offensive system adds a bit of unpredictability. But that doesn’t mean you should count out Amon-Ra. A step back in one category doesn’t erase everything else he brings to the table — especially in fantasy football.