By Moses Joshua 
One improbable season has turned a bargain signing into one of the most complicated decisions Detroit’s front office will face this spring.
The Detroit Lions gambled last offseason when they chose not to pour money into the pass rush around Aidan Hutchinson. Instead, they leaned on depth, development, and a 30-year-old edge rusher signed to a modest one-year deal.
That gamble paid off — almost too well.
Al-Quadin Muhammad didn’t just plug a hole. He exploded into the heart of Detroit’s defensive identity, and now his sudden stardom is threatening to price him right out of town.
From Insurance Policy to Defensive Centerpiece
The Lions entered the year hoping Hutchinson would bounce back after losing most of the previous season to a broken leg. They penciled in Marcus Davenport on the opposite edge, but that plan unraveled almost immediately when a strained pectoral sent Davenport back to the training table in Week 2.
That’s when Muhammad stepped in.
What followed was a career-defining stretch: 11 sacks through 16 games, more than 200 additional snaps compared to last season, and personal bests across the board — 20 quarterback hits, nine tackles for loss, and a weekly presence in opposing backfields.
His production has been so vital that Detroit sits fourth in the league with 48 team sacks. Remove Muhammad’s contribution and that ranking craters into the bottom half of the NFL. Alongside Hutchinson’s 13.5 sacks, the duo accounts for over half of the Lions’ entire pass rush.
For a player making $1.4 million, that’s highway robbery.
The $16.6 Million Question
Muhammad’s breakout has forced Detroit into an uncomfortable conversation. According to Spotrac projections, he’s tracking toward a two-year deal worth roughly $16.6 million — nearly a 600 percent annual raise.
For a franchise that avoided spending on the edge last year, that number is no longer theoretical. It’s staring them in the face.
The problem? Muhammad’s résumé before 2025 was solid, not spectacular. He entered the season with 15 career sacks over seven years. Now, more than 40 percent of his career production has come in one late-career surge.
So which version is real — the reliable role player, or the suddenly dominant disruptor?
Is Hutchinson the Catalyst?
Some around the league wonder if Muhammad’s numbers are a byproduct of Hutchinson commanding double-teams and protection slides. It’s the classic “benefiting from the star” debate.
Sean Baligian of Woodward Sports Network put it bluntly:
“I hope he’s back. I really hope he’s back. What if somebody comes in and goes over the top?”
Baligian later drew a parallel to one of Detroit’s most famous defensive tandems:
“Avril feasted off of what Suh was doing, alright? Cliff Avril would tell you that himself. And if somebody wants to say that about [Muhammad], ‘Well, the doubles and the triples that [Hutchinson] is getting, that opens some things up for [Muhammad].’ Okay, we can have that conversation.”
But he wasn’t dismissive of Muhammad’s growth:
“But my man also made things happen. And much like Cliff Avril was able to parlay that into a big contract, my guess is [Muhammad] will be able to parlay that into a pretty good contract.”
Detroit’s Defensive Fork in the Road
Letting Muhammad walk means trusting the front office to find another low-cost miracle. Paying him means committing real money to a player whose breakout arrived at age 30.
Either way, the Lions are boxed into a decision they never expected to make.
Muhammad officially hits free agency in March. When that door opens, every team hungry for edge help will be knocking — and Detroit may have to decide whether one unforgettable season is worth betting the future of their pass rush.