By Sunday 
MLB Insider Sounds Alarm on Mets Rising Star’s Future
Despite early success, Tylor Megill faces skepticism in pursuit of breakout season
Early Signs of Promise
Tylor Megill has turned heads early this season, delivering two sharp starts for the New York Mets and staking an early claim in the rotation. Through 10.1 innings, he’s surrendered just one run on five hits, collecting 10 strikeouts and earning a pair of wins. The numbers speak of a pitcher in control — aggressive, efficient, and confident.
Yet not everyone is convinced the surge will last.
A Familiar Role — With a New Twist
Entering his fifth MLB season, Megill once again arrived at spring training as a rotation hopeful rather than a lock. The difference in 2025? Injuries to key arms Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas cracked the door open — and Megill seized the opportunity.
But his situation is as precarious as ever. Though his performance has been strong, his age and past inconsistency leave some skeptical. Joe Reuter of Bleacher Report offers a tempered assessment:
“A few months shy of his 30th birthday and with the same repertoire as in years past, a true breakout still feels unlikely.”
Despite that note of caution, Megill’s early work can’t be ignored.
The Numbers Behind the Rise
Megill’s 2024 season laid quiet groundwork for his current run. He posted a 4.04 ERA across 78 innings, but the advanced numbers told a more promising story — a 3.55 FIP, 3.81 SIERA, and 3.79 xFIP. He also improved his strikeout rate to a career-best 27%, trimmed his home run rate to under 1.0 HR/9 for the first time, and generated a 28% whiff rate.
Most notably, he began to trust a deeper pitch mix. Five of his six offerings achieved whiff rates over 27%, with his splitter standing out at an elite 42.9%. That pitch alone ranked 13th in effectiveness among qualified pitchers.
Megill also saw his fastball tick up from 94.9 mph to 95.7 mph. Combined with tighter vertical movement and an improved Stuff+ score — jumping from 89 to 103 — the ingredients for a leap are there.
Manager Sees Growth in Execution
In his most recent outing — a 5-0 win over Toronto — Megill tossed 5.1 scoreless innings and displayed poise under pressure.
“He’s keeping it simple and attacking hitters,” said manager Carlos Mendoza. “I thought he used all of his pitches today in a good way. I thought he slowed the game down.”
That calm presence, paired with mechanical refinements and improved pitch quality, has helped fuel an eight-game win streak for the Mets in his last eight starts dating back to August 30, 2024. During that stretch, his ERA stands at a stingy 1.96.
A Measured Bet on Potential
Megill’s case remains one of nuance. The surface stats say breakout. The analytics offer cautious optimism. But history and age temper expectations.
He may never be a frontline ace, but if he sustains this form, he could be exactly what the Mets need: a consistent, late-blooming starter who stabilizes the middle of the rotation.
For now, the spotlight is his to keep — or to lose.