Russia, China, and Europe Watching as Trump and Iran Talk in Oman
Talks between the U.S. and Iran are quietly happening in Oman, and big global players Russia, China, and the European “E-3” (UK, France, Germany) are mostly staying on the sidelines for now.
These talks stem from a direct exchange of letters between President Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Since the U.S. walked away from the 2015 nuclear deal (the JCPOA) in 2018, diplomacy hasn’t really been the same. Now, it’s more about one-on-one bargaining than multilateral teamwork.
Iran’s strategy? Threaten to ramp up its nuclear program to gain leverage. Behind the scenes, Iranian officials admit they see nuclear development more as a bargaining chip to get rid of harsh U.S. sanctions than an actual plan to build weapons. At the same time, they’re open to broader strategic talks, maybe even helping the U.S. balance against China in Eurasia but only if the U.S. shows flexibility.
Washington, for its part, wants to avoid Iran crossing the nuclear threshold. The International Atomic Energy Agency can’t fully track Iran’s uranium enrichment anymore, and Iran now has enough material for several bombs. Israel is itching to strike, so time is short.
Russia, despite its alliance with Tehran, doesn’t want Iran to go nuclear either it would only cause more chaos near its borders. Moscow also doesn’t want to be dragged into a fight between the U.S. and Iran. It would prefer a return to the original JCPOA framework but admits it doesn’t have much influence over either side now. Still, it’s pushing for some kind of deal before a major October deadline when key parts of the JCPOA expire.
Europe agrees with Russia: no one wants to see this spiral into crisis. If talks fall apart, European countries might bring back UN sanctions, which could push Iran to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether.
On the Iranian side, negotiations are a tightrope. Hardliners like the Revolutionary Guard and Supreme Leader loyalists want to keep control, while the elected government is under pressure to ease economic pain. Inflation is sky-high, and millions are struggling. The people want change less isolation, less economic misery.
But even Iran’s negotiating team is split. The lead diplomat talking in Oman doesn’t fully control Iran’s UN ambassador in New York, who’s also quietly reaching out to the U.S., even through unusual channels like Elon Musk.
Bottom line: both sides want a deal, but each is tangled in domestic politics, power struggles, and distrust. Whether they can pull something off before time runs out is still a big question.