By Blessing 
One Snap Away from Chaos: The Ragnowrok Threat to Detroit’s Dream Season
The Detroit Lions might be staring down a disappointing 2025 season—and not enough people are talking about it.
Sure, they won 15 games last year, setting sky-high expectations. But even the best-built teams can stumble, especially when they’re standing on such a towering ledge. While other NFC North teams like the Vikings and Bears are making headline-grabbing moves—Minnesota rebooting at quarterback and Chicago hoping offensive guru Ben Johnson can unlock rookie Caleb Williams—Detroit seems calm on the surface. Too calm.
But that calm might be the silence before a fall.
To understand why, we need to talk about a crucial NFL concept: the “weak link system.” It’s one of the most important ideas when forecasting a team’s success—or failure. Sure, luck and injuries always play a role in how things shake out, but they don’t tell us much about the actual strength or structure of a team. Weak link systems do.
What Is a Weak Link System?
In simple terms, a weak link system is one where your performance is only as strong as your weakest player at a critical position. And nowhere is this concept more glaringly obvious than on defense.
Unlike offense, which controls the tempo and can scheme around injuries, defenses are more exposed. If your second-best cornerback goes down, you can’t just “ask more” from your top corner. Defenses today routinely play nickel (five defensive backs), which means you’ll likely have to move your slot corner outside or dig into the bench for another outside corner. Either way, your fourth-best defensive back is suddenly in the spotlight—and quarterbacks will find him fast.
Think of it like this: lose your WR2, and you can funnel targets to your WR1 or mix in different formations. Lose your CB2, and you’re stuck hoping CB4 doesn’t get roasted.
That’s exactly what happened to Detroit in last year’s playoffs. After a season filled with injuries—starting with star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson—the Lions limped into the postseason. In their matchup against Washington, a banged-up secondary forced Kindle Vildor into significant snaps. He allowed 136 yards and a touchdown, a glaring example of what happens when your fourth corner becomes a liability.
Despite those challenges, the Lions finished 5th in defensive DVOA during the regular season. But the wear and tear caught up with them when it mattered most. Washington torched them for 38 points, with Jayden Daniels tossing two touchdowns and the Commanders’ running backs adding three more. Oh, and Jared Goff chipped in—unfortunately—with a pick-six.
That’s how a weak link breaks a unit that otherwise seems solid on paper.
Weak Links on the Offensive Line?
Now, let’s flip the field.
We often think of offense as more resilient. After all, offenses can scheme, change tempo, and compensate when key pieces go down. But here’s the thing—offensive lines are also weak link systems. And that’s where the Lions might be in serious trouble this season.
Enter: Ragnowrok.
When elite center Frank Ragnow announced his retirement, it didn’t just sting—it shook the core of the offense. For the past seven years, Ragnow was the rock in the middle of one of the NFL’s top offensive lines. Aside from an average rookie year, his PFF grades consistently hovered in the 80+ range, marking him as one of the best at his position.
His departure leaves a gaping hole in a unit already facing a generational shift.
Last year, Detroit’s guards were Kevin Zeitler and Graham Glasgow—both seasoned veterans. But Zeitler has moved on to Tennessee, and Glasgow, now 33, is nearing the end of his prime. The Lions were planning on retooling anyway, sliding in 2024 sixth-rounder Christian Mahogany and 2025 second-round pick Tate Ratledge. Now, they’ll be doing it without Ragnow to stabilize the center.
His backup? A former undrafted free agent named Michael Niese.
To make matters worse, left tackle Taylor Decker is entering his age-32 season with a history of nagging injuries. Only right tackle Penei Sewell, still in his prime, remains a sure thing on the offensive line. In short, the Lions are staring down a potential complete turnover of their interior line.
That’s a problem—and not just because of Ragnow’s individual talent.
Offensive line continuity is a critical predictor of success, and the Lions just lost that advantage at the worst possible time. New offensive coordinator John Morton is stepping in to replace Ben Johnson, and while Johnson was seen as one of the brightest minds in football, Morton’s track record is… less encouraging. Let’s just say his Wikipedia page doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Why This Spells Trouble for Jared Goff
Some quarterbacks are immune to pressure. Jared Goff is not one of them.
Though he’s improved in recent years, Goff’s performance still takes a dramatic dip when the pocket collapses. He’s particularly vulnerable to interior pressure, which makes the loss of Ragnow and Zeitler a major red flag. Without a strong, reliable middle of the line, Goff becomes a sitting duck.
Just look at what happened against Washington. The Commanders generated pressure through the middle, leading directly to a lost fumble and one of Goff’s three interceptions.
It’s no mystery—Goff needs a clean pocket to thrive. When the line holds up, he’s one of the league’s most efficient passers. When it breaks down, the offense can grind to a halt.
A Running Game Built on a Shaky Foundation
The Lions weren’t just an efficient passing team last year—they had one of the best run games in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for over 2,100 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns, forming a thunder-and-lightning duo that kept defenses honest. In advanced stats, Gibbs ranked 7th in Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt, putting him in elite company.
But here’s the thing about running games: they’re highly dependent on blocking. Even the most talented backs can only do so much behind a collapsing line—just ask Saquon Barkley during his Giants days.
Last season, Detroit ranked 4th in rushing success rate and was one of only six teams with a positive EPA per rush. That’s incredibly rare. Most run games actually cost teams expected points, but Detroit was among the few actually gaining value from it.
The Lions ran the ball 478 times with their backs last season, and 44.8% of those runs were deemed successful. Compare that to the Packers, who had a 41.9% success rate on fewer carries. That small percentage difference adds up—fall just a few spots in success rate, and you could lose 21–24 points of value over a season.
And that’s the risk Detroit faces now.
With an uncertain interior line and a new coordinator, there’s a very real chance that Gibbs and Montgomery won’t see the same daylight they did last year. If they fall below the 44% success threshold, Detroit’s run game could go from an asset to a liability.
Regression Is Already Coming
Let’s be clear—this isn’t about tearing down the Lions. Over the last few years, they’ve built one of the most impressive turnarounds in the league. They’ve drafted well, developed talent, and proven they can win tough games.
But when you win 15 games, regression is inevitable. Even elite teams rarely maintain that pace two years in a row. And Detroit is going through a ton of change:
Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn both moved on to head coaching roles.
Hutchinson is coming back from a major injury.
The secondary is full of players recovering from injuries.
And Frank Ragnow—one of the true leaders of the team—just retired.
None of these challenges are fatal on their own. But together? They create a perfect storm for a drop-off.
If everything goes right, maybe they still win the division. But if even a few pieces falter—if the offensive line struggles, if Goff gets rattled, if the defense springs a leak again—the Lions could easily slide down to 9 or 10 wins.
That wouldn’t make them a bad team. But it would be a far cry from the Super Bowl expectations swirling around Detroit.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes the biggest threats are the quietest. While everyone else is focused on the Bears’ rookie quarterback or the Vikings’ reset, the Lions are walking a tightrope built on last season’s success, hoping the supporting structure doesn’t give out.
But if “Ragnowrok” proves to be real—and the offensive line crumbles—it won’t just be a step back. It could be a full-blown collapse.
Detroit is officially one snap away from
chaos.