By Sunday 
When five-star forward Caleb Wilson announced his commitment to North Carolina live on Inside the NBA, it had the flair of a momentous decision. But just weeks later, the numbers and the track record paint a less-than-rosy picture for the Tar Heel-bound recruit.
A Surprising Move on a Big Stage
It’s not every day a high school star makes his college choice in front of Charles Barkley and Shaq. Wilson did just that — and while UNC fans cheered, Big Blue Nation sat in disbelief. Kentucky, with its NBA assembly line of a program, was right there. The stage was set. And yet, Wilson turned away.
Now, it’s hard not to wonder: Did he choose spotlight over substance?
UNC’s NBA Pipeline Has Been… Dry
The numbers don’t lie. Since Vince Carter left Chapel Hill in 1998, UNC has not produced an NBA All-Star since 2007. Their last No. 1 overall pick? Brad Daugherty in 1986. For context, that’s before Wilson was even born.
Compare that to Kentucky, which under Calipari (and now Mark Pope) has:
- 37 first-rounders
- 15 lottery picks
- And a reputation as a surefire path to the league
Even this year, Kentucky had two second-rounders, proving their pipeline still flows. Meanwhile, UNC’s last top-five pick was Marvin Williams in 2005. A little underwhelming if you’re a five-star talent banking on NBA development.
Talent Isn’t the Question—Trajectory Is
Wilson’s raw talent is undeniable. But development and exposure are everything. Kentucky is known for tailoring their system to elevate elite recruits — a fast lane to the NBA, not just for making the league, but for starring in it.
UNC? Still a strong brand. But in the last 15+ years, the results have lagged behind.
Hope or Regret?
Maybe Wilson breaks the mold. Maybe he becomes the next great Tar Heel to flip the narrative. But if his college years don’t catapult him to NBA stardom, fans — and maybe even Wilson himself — could be left wondering: What if I had picked Kentucky?
Because sometimes the difference between “good” and “great” is simply the jersey you choose.