By Sunday 
At first glance, an 8–8 record doesn’t exactly scream championship trajectory. It feels middle-of-the-road, forgettable, maybe even disappointing depending on expectations. But for this Lions team, the surface-level record hides a much more compelling truth — one that places them in some surprisingly elite historical company.
This is one of those seasons where you really have to look beyond the standings.
The Numbers That Change the Entire Conversation
Football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz recently shared a comparison of every 8–8 team since 1978 using DVOA — a metric that measures overall team efficiency rather than just wins and losses. And what those numbers revealed about Detroit is eye-opening.
The 2025 Lions finished with a 21.7% DVOA, ranking third overall in the entire NFL. That makes them the second-best 8–8 team ever recorded by this metric.
In other words… this team played far better than its record suggests.
Why That’s a Big Deal Historically
When you scan the list of teams with similar efficiency numbers and “average” records, a clear trend emerges. Most of them didn’t stay average for long.
Teams in this category often:
Took major leaps the following season
Became consistent playoff contenders
Made deep postseason runs — including Super Bowl appearances
History shows that elite efficiency paired with a mediocre record is usually a sign of something brewing, not breaking.
How Can a Top-3 Team Finish 8–8?
This is where context matters. Teams can dominate large portions of games and still lose — especially when margins are thin. A few recurring issues usually explain the disconnect:
Close losses in one-score games
Turnovers at the worst possible moments
Red-zone struggles
Injuries during key stretches
DVOA suggests the Lions controlled games more often than not. They just didn’t always cash those advantages into wins. The good news? Those problems are typically fixable, not foundational.
Should Fans Actually Feel Optimistic? Yes.
Schatz notes that while a handful of teams on the list eventually regressed, many others went on to become legitimate contenders. Detroit checks nearly every “on the verge” box:
Top-tier efficiency
A strong roster foundation
Competitive performances almost every week
The standings may say 8–8, but the analytics say playoff-caliber — and history says that combination often leads to a breakout.
Bottom Line
This season may not have looked special in the win-loss column, but the deeper numbers tell a far more encouraging story. Teams like this don’t usually stay stuck in neutral. They jump.
Average record one year…
Major leap the next.
If history repeats itself, the Lions might be closer to contention than anyone realizes.