CBS Sports fantasy analyst Heath Cummings isn’t ready to throw dirt on Detroit’s offense, but he is urging caution. In his latest “2025 Busts 2.0” column, Cummings breaks down the Lions’ top playmakers—and warns that some of them are being drafted a little too high in early fantasy leagues.
Cummings starts by listing key Lions players and their average draft positions (ADPs):
Jahmyr Gibbs: RB2 (4th overall)
Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR5 (8th overall)
Sam LaPorta: TE4 (57th overall)
Jameson Williams: WR29 (63rd overall)
David Montgomery: RB25 (66th overall)
Jared Goff: QB19 (127th overall)
He’s surprisingly optimistic about Jared Goff, calling him a sleeper and arguing that his QB19 draft slot is way too low. But while Goff might be undervalued, the rest of the Lions’ skill players may be facing some statistical reality checks.
> “Goff’s 6.9% touchdown rate last year was well above his career norm,” Cummings pointed out. “Regression is likely, and that goes for nearly every major weapon in Detroit’s offense.”
He breaks it down:
Gibbs scored on 6.6% of his touches—up from 4.7% in 2023.
St. Brown’s TD rate jumped to 8.5%, nearly double his previous career average.
LaPorta’s scoring made up for a noticeable drop in targets.
Williams’ eye-popping 11.8 yards per target is something no receiver has ever sustained over time.
Cummings is essentially saying: someone in this group is due to come back to earth.
He doesn’t name names directly, but if you read between the lines, it’s likely that two of Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta might not live up to their high draft prices in 2025.
Still, there’s one name he keeps circling back to with confidence: Jared Goff.
> “If you can’t pick two Lions to fade this year, then you should probably just draft Jared Goff in Round 10 of every draft.”
It’s clear Cummings expects the offense to take a modest step back from last year’s league-best 68 touchdowns, but he also believes Goff could remain a solid fantasy option—especially at his bargain ADP.
So for fantasy football managers eyeing Detroit, the message is simple: proceed with belief in Goff… but maybe a bit more caution around his top-tier targets.
Goff a Sleeper, But Who’s Set to Bust? Fantasy Expert Sounds Alarm on Lions’ Offense
